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How would you vote tomorrow


Abacus Data's latest national polling data shows that an election held today would see the Liberals with 35% support (unchanged from last month), the Conservatives at 31%, the NDP at 17% and the Greens at 6%.

Slide1. By Abacus Data

Regionally, the Liberals have a 10-point lead in Ontario and a 9-point lead in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the Liberals and BQ are statistically tied while in BC, Abacus Data found a close three-way race between the Conservatives, NDP, and Liberals. The Conservatives lead by wide margins in the Prairies.

Slide3-1. By Abacus Data

Abacus Data also tracked the accessible pool of voters each major party has – that is, the percentage of Canadians who say they would consider voting for the party. Half of Canadians say they would be open to voting Liberal (53%), 8-points more than the Conservatives (45%) and 9-points more than the NDP (44%). The Liberals have consistently had more than half of the electorate open to voting for them while the Conservatives have ranged between 43% and 47% for all of 2020 and now into 2021.

Slide14. By Abacus Data

The federal government’s approval rating has held fairly steady for the past few months. Today, 44% approve while 36% disapprove, similar to what Abacus Data found last month. Over 3 in 4 2019 Liberal voters approve of the government’s performance as do 1 in 5 Conservative voters, 42% of NDP voters, and 37% of Green voters.

Slide7-1. By Abacus Data
Slide13. By Abacus Data

Canadians are split on their views of Prime Minister Trudeau. 38% have a positive view while 37% negative. In contrast, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole has a net negative impression with 20% having a positive view and 28% negative. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives have declined to the lowest level since May with 34% viewing him positively and 21% negatively.

Slide8. By Abacus Data
Slide9. By Abacus Data
Slide12. By Abacus Data

Abacus Data's survey also asked respondents to rate the performance of the federal government on a number of measures. On all but one (managing the deficit/debt) a majority feel the government is doing a good or acceptable job. The government gets more positive evaluations for supporting those in trouble because of COVID-19, representing Canada internationally, and communicating with Canadians.

Negatives are highest when it comes to managing the deficit/debt, handling the economy, and being accessible and accountable.

Slide17. By Abacus Data